Economic Risk - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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Forthcoming
Article

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details

Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks

January 2022
Article

Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

By: Erik Stafford

The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics... View Details

Keywords: Replicating Portfolio; Private Equity; Investment Portfolio

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May 2021
Article

Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

By: Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Juan Camilo Castillo, Rachel Glennerster, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Kremer, Jean Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M. Snyder, Alex Tabarrok, Brandon Joel Tan and Witold Wiecek

Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement, arguing... View Details

Keywords: Vaccines; Procurement; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Acquisition; Cooperation

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October 2017
Case

Shift Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas Eisenmann and Nicole Tempest Keller

In 2017, management at Shift, an online marketplace that uses a “high touch,” concierge approach to buy and sell used cars, was formulating plans for the San Francisco–based startup’s next phase of expansion. One option was to preserve Shift’s current business model... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Market Design; Multi-Sided Platforms; Marketplace Matching; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Auto Industry; Retail Industry; United States

02 Mar 2011
News

HBS Faculty on Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa

January 2023
Case

Thomas Buberl: Refounding AXA

By: Hubert Joly, Mihir Desai and Amram Migdal

In 2022, AXA and its CEO Thomas Buberl faced new types of challenges, including systemic risks such as climate change, geopolitical instability, public health crises, and social tensions caused by economic risks. AXA was one of the world’s largest insurers. Since... View Details

29 Jul 2014
First Look

First Look: July 29

Working Papers Learning from the Kursk Submarine Rescue Failure: The Case for Pluralistic Risk Management. By: Mikes, Anette, and Amram Migdal Abstract—The Kursk, a Russian nuclear‐powered submarine, sank in the relatively shallow... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

February 2023 (Revised June 2023)
Case

Doing Business in São Paulo, Brazil

By: Hise O. Gibson, Leonard A. Schlesinger, Ruth Costas and Pedro Levindo

The case uses the example of a large investment made by French retail group Carrefour in Brazil to discuss the opportunities and challenges of doing business in the country. It gives readers an overview of Brazil’s economic transformation since its colonial years until... View Details

Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economic Growth; Economic Sectors; Economy; Macroeconomics; Business History; Brazil; Latin America

2024
Working Paper

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details

Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks

2010
Working Paper

Crashes and Collateralized Lending

By: Jakub W. Jurek and Erik Stafford

This paper develops a parsimonious static model for characterizing financing terms in collateralized lending markets. We characterize the systematic risk exposures for a variety of securities and develop a simple indifference-pricing framework to value the systematic... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Cost of Capital; Credit; Financing and Loans; Interest Rates; Investment; Framework; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Services Industry

January–February 2021
Article

Compensation Packages That Actually Drive Performance

By: Boris Groysberg, Sarah Abbott, Michael R. Marino and Metin Aksoy

By aligning executives’ financial incentives with company strategy, a firm can inspire its management to deliver superior results. But it can be hard to get pay packages right. In this article four experts break down the key elements of compensation and explain how to... View Details

Keywords: Executive Compensation; Compensation and Benefits; Motivation and Incentives; Strategy; Performance

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June 2008 (Revised October 2008)
Case

International Carbon Finance and EcoSecurities

By: Andre F. Perold, Forest L. Reinhardt and Mikell Hyman

In late 2007, EcoSecurities had to decide whether to undertake a new Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) project in China. EcoSecurities was an aggregator of carbon credits and also invested directly in projects that produced carbon credits. Governments and firms... View Details

Keywords: Non-Renewable Energy; Cost Management; Investment Return; Business and Government Relations; Risk and Uncertainty; Investment; Cash Flow; Valuation; Pollutants; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Services Industry; China

2020
Working Paper

EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms

By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava

Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on... View Details

Keywords: COVID-19; Emerging Economies; Informality; Firm-size Distribution; Health Pandemics; Developing Countries and Economies; Economy; System Shocks; Latin America

Peter Tufano

Peter Tufano is a Baker Foundation Professor at Harvard Business School and Senior Advisor to the Harvard Salata Institute for Climate and Sustainability. From 2011 to 2021, he served as the Peter Moores Dean at View Details

March 1994 (Revised October 1994)
Case

Reading Energy

By: Forest L. Reinhardt

Reading Energy builds facilities that produce energy from nontraditional fuels. A privately held, entrepreneurial organization, it has spent six years developing a plan to build a waste-to-energy plant in the town of Robbins, Illinois. The plant would burn municipal... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Wastes and Waste Processing; Business and Community Relations; Business Plan; Agreements and Arrangements; Contracts; Risk and Uncertainty; Government and Politics; Environmental Sustainability; Business Strategy; Energy Industry; Utilities Industry; Illinois

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January 2001
Background Note

Online Brokers

By: Thomas R. Eisenmann and Alastair Brown

Describes online brokers, companies that use the Internet to help clients identify prospective trading partners and sometimes help their clients complete transactions. First, summarizes the various ways that online brokers create value for their clients. Then analyzes... View Details

Keywords: Business Model; Web Services Industry

October 2014 (Revised September 2017)
Case

The National Football League and Brain Injuries

By: Richard G. Hamermesh and Matthew G. Preble

The National Football League (NFL) was both the most popular spectator sport in the U.S. and a major economic entity, taking in roughly $10 billion a year in revenue. However through the early twenty-first century, an increased understanding of the long-term effects of... View Details

Keywords: Employee Safety; Safety; Employees; Sports; Health; Ethics; Sports Industry; United States

07 Apr 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Location Strategies for Agglomeration Economies

Keywords: by Juan Alcácer & Wilbur Chung; Technology

11 Mar 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Finding Missing Markets (and a disturbing epilogue): Evidence from an Export Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya

Keywords: by Nava Ashraf, Xavier Giné & Dean Karlan; Food & Beverage

May 2015
Teaching Note

The United Kingdom and the Means to Prosperity

By: Laura Alfaro, Lakshmi Iyer and Hilary White

After struggling through the country's longest recession since 2008, the U.K. was expected to grow faster than any other G7 nation in 2014. Analysts wondered whether the return to growth was because, or in spite of, Prime Minister David Cameron's controversial £113... View Details

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