Predictability - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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October 2020
Article

IQ from IP: Simplifying Search in Portfolio Choice

By: Huaizhi Chen, Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy

Using a novel database that tracks web traffic on the SEC’s EDGAR servers between 2004 and 2015, we show that mutual fund managers gather information on a very particular subset of firms and insiders, and their surveillance is very persistent over time. This tracking... View Details

Keywords: Tracked Trades; Return Predictability; Institutional Trading; Insider Trading; Institutional Investing; Information; Investment Portfolio; Decisions; Management

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September 2017
Article

The Belief in a Favorable Future

By: Todd Rogers, Don A. Moore and Michael I. Norton

People believe that future others’ preferences and beliefs will change to align with their own. People holding a particular view (e.g., support of President Trump) are more likely to believe that future others will share their view than to believe that future others... View Details

Keywords: Social Cognition; Judgment; Prediction; Forecasting; False Consensus; Donation; Open Data; Open Materials; Preregistered; Forecasting and Prediction; Perception; Values and Beliefs; Behavior

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2000
Other Unpublished Work

New Trading Practices and the Short-run Predictability of the S&P 500: Market Volatility and Investor Confidence, Report to the Board of Directors of the New York Stock Exchange, Inc.

By: André Perold

Keywords: Stocks; Financial Markets; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Capital Markets; Volatility; Market Timing

February 2017 (Revised June 2017)
Case

ExxonMobil: Business as Usual? (A)

By: George Serafeim, Shiva Rajgopal and David Freiberg

Climate change was becoming an important societal and business issue as more governments were introducing climate change related regulations and investors became increasibly worried about stranded assets within oil and gas firms. In September 2016, the U.S. Securities... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Oil Prices; Oil Companies; Asset Impairment; Predictive Analytics; Sustainability; Environmental Impact; Innovation; Disclosure; Accounting; Valuation; Climate Change; Renewable Energy; Environmental Sustainability; Financial Reporting; Energy Industry

February 2017 (Revised June 2017)
Supplement

ExxonMobil: Business as Usual? (B)

By: George Serafeim, Shiva Rajgopal and David Freiberg

The case presents ExxonMobil's response to growing pressure to disclose how climate change will impact their business. This includes multiple asset impairments and losing a proxy vote to shareholders to increase climate change related reporting. Supplements the (B)... View Details

Keywords: Oil ＆ Gas; Oil Prices; Oil Companies; Asset Impairment; Predictive Analytics; Sustainability; Environmental Impact; Innovation; Disclosure; Accounting; Valuation; Energy Sources; Ethics; Corporate Disclosure; Governance Compliance; Climate Change; Financial Reporting; Energy Industry; United States

June 2014
Case

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

By the end of 2013, Apple had $137 billion dollars in cash and marketable securities. This case explores how companies can generate such large amounts of cash and how and if they should distribute it to shareholders, especially in the face of shareholder pressure. In... View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

January 2021 (Revised March 2021)
Case

THE YES: Reimagining the Future of E-Commerce with Artificial Intelligence (AI)

By: Jill Avery, Ayelet Israeli and Emma von Maur

THE YES, a multi-brand shopping app launched in May 2020 offered a new type of buying experience for women’s fashion, driven by a sophisticated algorithm that used data science and machine learning to create and deliver a personalized store for every shopper, based on... View Details

Keywords: Data; Data Analytics; Artificial Intelligence; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Fashion; Retail; Retail Analytics; E-Commerce Strategy; Platform; Platforms; Big Data; Preference Elicitation; Preference Prediction; Predictive Analytics; App Development; ＂Marketing Analytics＂; Advertising; Mobile App; Mobile Marketing; Apparel; Online Advertising; Referral Rewards; Referrals; Female Ceo; Female Entrepreneur; Female Protagonist; Analytics and Data Science; Analysis; Creativity; Marketing Strategy; Brands and Branding; Consumer Behavior; Demand and Consumers; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Channels; Digital Marketing; Internet and the Web; Mobile and Wireless Technology; AI and Machine Learning; E-commerce; Digital Platforms; Fashion Industry; Retail Industry; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States

October 2017 (Revised November 2017)
Case

NYC311

By: Constantine E. Kontokosta, Mitchell Weiss, Christine Snively and Sarah Gulick

Joe Morrisroe, executive director for NYC311, had some gut instincts but no definitive answer to the question he was just asked by one of the mayor’s deputies: “Are some communities being underserved by 311? How do we know we are hearing from the right people?” Founded... View Details

February 2018 (Revised December 2020)
Supplement

People Analytics at Teach For America (Data Set)

By: Jeffrey T. Polzer

This data set is a supplement to the People Analytics at Teach For America (A) case. View Details

Keywords: Analytics; Human Resource Management; Data; Workforce; Hiring; Talent Management; Forecasting; Predictive Analytics; Organizational Behavior; Recruiting

October 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Excel Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the Excel Supplement to Teaching Note 215-022: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; United States; Republic of Ireland

June 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call. View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

June 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Student Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the student spreadsheet supplement to case 214-085, Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

October 2014
Supplement

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 Powerpoint Supplement

By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer

This is the PowerPoint supplement to the teaching note: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) - (B), number 215-022. View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

October 2014
Teaching Note

Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and (B)

By: Mihir A. Desai and Elizabeth Meyer

This is the teaching note to HBS case 214-085: Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A). View Details

Keywords: Apple; Steve Jobs; Forecast; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Shareholder Activism; Share Repurchase; Dividends; Financial Ratios; Preferred Shares; Cash Distribution; Corporate Finance; Borrowing and Debt; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Technology Industry; Consumer Products Industry; United States; Republic of Ireland

Teaching Interest

Overview

Paul is primarily interested in teaching data science to management students through the case method. This includes technical topics (programming and statistics) as well as higher-level management issues (digital transformation, data governance, etc.) As a research... View Details

Keywords: A/B Testing; AI; AI Algorithms; AI Creativity; Algorithm; Algorithm Bias; Algorithmic Bias; Algorithmic Fairness; Algorithms; Analytics; Application Program Interface; Artificial Intelligence; Causality; Causal Inference; Computing; Computers; Data Analysis; Data Analytics; Data Architecture; Data As A Service; Data Centers; Data Governance; Data Labeling; Data Management; Data Manipulation; Data Mining; Data Ownership; Data Privacy; Data Protection; Data Science; Data Science And Analytics Management; Data Scientists; Data Security; Data Sharing; Data Strategy; Data Visualization; Database; Data-driven Decision-making; Data-driven Management; Data-driven Operations; Datathon; Economics Of AI; Economics Of Innovation; Economics Of Information System; Economics Of Science; Forecast; Forecast Accuracy; Forecasting; Forecasting And Prediction; Information Technology; Machine Learning; Machine Learning Models; Prediction; Prediction Error; Predictive Analytics; Predictive Models; Analysis; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Applications and Software; Digital Transformation; Information Management; Digital Strategy; Technology Adoption

September 2023
Article

Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement

By: George Serafeim and Aaron Yoon

We investigate whether ESG ratings predict future ESG news and the associated market reactions. We find that the consensus rating predicts future news, but its predictive ability diminishes for firms with large disagreement between raters. Relation between news and... View Details

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07 Jan 2019
Research & Ideas

The Better Way to Forecast the Future

different fields,” says Grushka-Cockayne, whose research is on data science, forecasting, project management, and behavioral decision-making. “Our work is focused on using crowds for prediction and for forecasting something that is... View Details

Keywords: by Roberta Holland; Air Transportation; Transportation

Article

Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler

We examine how investor sentiment affects the cross-section of stock returns. Theory predicts that a broad wave of sentiment will disproportionately affect stocks whose valuations are highly subjective and are difficult to arbitrage. We test this prediction by... View Details

Keywords: Financial Markets; Stocks; Investment Return; Valuation; Forecasting and Prediction; Volatility; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Behavioral Finance

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18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

doctoral student at the University of Chicago. The ‘state’ of the price gap matters Economists generally use two main data models to detect inflation and predict the pace at which retailers raise prices: time dependent and state... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

April 12, 2023
Article

Using AI to Adjust Your Marketing and Sales in a Volatile World

By: Das Narayandas and Arijit Sengupta

Why are some firms better and faster than others at adapting their use of customer data to respond to changing or uncertain marketing conditions? A common thread across faster-acting firms is the use of AI models to predict outcomes at various stages of the customer... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; AI and Machine Learning; Consumer Behavior; Technology Adoption; Competitive Advantage

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