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- July 2023
- Article
Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations
By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet
In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Complexity of Economic Decisions
By: Xavier Gabaix and Thomas Graeber
We propose a theory of the complexity of economic decisions. Leveraging a macroeconomic framework of production functions, we conceptualize the mind as a cognitive economy, where a task’s complexity is determined by its composition of cognitive operations. Complexity... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Market for Sharing Interest Rate Risk: Quantities and Asset Prices
By: Umang Khetan, Jane Li, Ioana Neamtu and Ishita Sen
We study the extent of interest rate risk sharing across the financial system using granular positions and transactions data in interest rate swaps. We show that pension and insurance (PF&I) sector emerges as a natural counterparty to banks and corporations: overall,... View Details
- 2023
- Book
The State and Capitalism in China
By: Meg Rithmire, Margaret M. Pearson and Kellee S. Tsai
This element explains China's political economic evolution from state socialist economy to a reform era state capitalism model to a more politicized, risk management approach we call "party-state capitalism." We emphasize the internal and external sources of perceived... View Details
- June 2023
- Case
Launching Egypt’s First Digital Banking Platform: QNB Bebasata
By: Mark Egan, Billy Chan and Ahmed Dahawy
The leadership team at QNB Alahli, Egypt's second biggest private bank, looked back on their efforts to create a brand-new, fully digital banking platform since 2019. A digital-only banking service was unprecedented in Egypt, a country where over 90% of financial... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised August 2023)
- Background Note
Subscription Models: Recurring Revenues for Lasting Growth
By: Elie Ofek and Amy Konary
This note offers a comprehensive exposition to subscription revenue models and aims to explain their recent rise. It covers the advantages to firms of employing a subscription-based approach to monetization (as opposed to “one-off” upfront payment), as well as the... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised May 2024)
- Case
Optimalen Capital
A new client portfolio manager at a quantitative investment management firm must explain why her firm, Optimalen Capital, has rebalanced a client portfolio with a set of trades that seem unintuitive. In particular, Optimalen has added to its position of Walmart (ticker... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised September 2023)
- Simulation
Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)
By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Celine Chammas
Adobe started monitoring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), one of its primary metrics, when it shifted from selling its software in a box to selling the software as a subscription-based cloud service. They wanted to know when, where, and how much to invest in marketing.... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised November 2023)
- Case
Sober Sidekick
By: Jeffrey J. Bussgang and Kumba Sennaar
Case on the nascent business model of a mobile health IT startup. In particular, should they pivot away from their successful lead generation business model to charging health plans. View Details
- June 2023 (Revised March 2024)
- Case
Creating World-Class Board Governance at SECO
By: Krishna G. Palepu and Emer Moloney
In Spring 2023, SECO CEO Massimo Mauri had the ambition to grow the €200 million revenue technology company to a €1 billion company by 2030. Founded in Italy in the 1970s, the family-owned company had gone through a period of growth and internationalization,... View Details
Keywords: Family Business; Business Model; Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Talent and Talent Management; Customer Focus and Relationships; Engineering; Governance; Corporate Governance; Governing and Advisory Boards; Growth and Development Strategy; Compensation and Benefits; Retention; Innovation and Invention; Technological Innovation; Going Public; Strategic Planning; Business and Shareholder Relations; Business Strategy; Information Infrastructure; Information Technology; Value Creation; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Computer Industry; Electronics Industry; Industrial Products Industry; Information Technology Industry; Technology Industry; Italy; Europe; Germany; United States; China
- June 2023
- Case
Block: Creating an Ecosystem of Ecosystems
By: Lauren Cohen, Richard Ryffel, Grace Headinger and Ruoshi Qi
At Investor Day 2022, Block announced a new vision for its businesses: creating an ecosystem of ecosystems. Outside the norm for many public growth companies, Block had recently acquired a variety of new business streams in the creator economy and Bitcoin despite a... View Details
Keywords: Business Growth; Fintech; Company Management; Growth Strategy; Innovation And Strategy; Acquisition; Business Growth and Maturation; Business Model; Change; Finance; Growth Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Innovation Strategy; Technological Innovation; Communication Strategy; Corporate Strategy; Business Strategy; Financial Services Industry; Technology Industry; United States; California; San Francisco
- 2023
- Working Paper
Evaluation and Learning in R&D Investment
By: Alexander P. Frankel, Joshua L. Krieger, Danielle Li and Dimitris Papanikolaou
We examine the role of spillover learning in shaping the value of exploratory versus incremental
R&D. Using data from drug development, we show that novel drug candidates generate more
knowledge spillovers than incremental ones. Despite being less likely to reach... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Confidence Sequences: A General Approach to Risk Mitigation in Online Experimentation
By: Dae Woong Ham, Michael Lindon, Martin Tingley and Iavor Bojinov
Randomized experiments have become the standard method for companies to evaluate the performance of new products or services. In addition to augmenting managers’ decision-making, experimentation mitigates risk by limiting the proportion of customers exposed to... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Auditing Predictive Models for Intersectional Biases
By: Kate S. Boxer, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we... View Details
- June 2023 (Revised February 2024)
- Case
Betting on Green Steel
By: George Serafeim and Sofoklis Melissovas
'Betting on Green Steel' traces the innovative journey embarked upon by a group of MBA students who have set out to conceive a novel steelmaker that pioneers the production of green steel. The ensemble is confronted with a series of critical choices that will shape the... View Details
- 2023
- Article
Provable Detection of Propagating Sampling Bias in Prediction Models
By: Pavan Ravishankar, Qingyu Mo, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
With an increased focus on incorporating fairness in machine learning models, it becomes imperative not only to assess and mitigate bias at each stage of the machine learning pipeline but also to understand the downstream impacts of bias across stages. Here we consider... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Sovereign Default and the Decline in Interest Rates
By: Max Miller, James Paron and Jessica Wachter
Sovereign debt yields have declined dramatically over the last half-century. Standard explanations, including aging populations and increases in asset demand from abroad, encounter difficulties when confronted with the full range of evidence. We propose an explanation... View Details
- January 2023
- Article
The Dark Side of Machiavellian Rhetoric: Signaling in Reward-Based Crowdfunding Performance
By: Goran Calic, Rene Arseneault and Maryam Ghasemaghaei
In this study, we explore the impact of Machiavellian rhetoric on fundraising within the increasingly important context of online crowdfunding. The “all-or-nothing” funding model used by the world’s largest crowdfunding platform, Kickstarter, may be an attractive... View Details
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Politics of Philanthropy in China
By: Geoffrey Jones and Yuhai Wu
This working paper looks historically at business philanthropy in China. In the West, the literature has distinguished between entrepreneurial and customary philanthropy, while the phenomenon of spiritual philanthropy has been identified in many emerging markets. This... View Details