Economic Risk - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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2016
Working Paper

Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle

By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek

Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details

Keywords: Investment; Credit; Macroeconomics

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20 Jul 2018
News

Can Economists and Humanists Ever Be Friends?

2006
Working Paper

Male Circumcision and AIDS: The Macroeconomic Impact of a Health Crisis

By: Amrita Ahuja, Brian Wendell and Eric D. Werker

Theories abound on the potential macroeconomic impact of AIDS in Africa, yet there have been surprisingly few empirical studies to test the mixed theoretical predictions. In this paper, we examine the impact of the AIDS epidemic on African nations through 2005 using... View Details

Keywords: Macroeconomics; Health Disorders; Welfare or Wellbeing; Poverty; Research; Education; Nutrition; Risk Management; Africa

13 Mar 2023
Research & Ideas

What Would It Take to Unlock Microfinance's Full Potential?

we are bringing new innovations and risk capital to the industry has piqued a lot of curiosity. Bulletin: So with these products you’re bridging the gap between research and practice? Rigol: Well, it’s a big gap, and we’re small people.... View Details

Keywords: by Jen McFarland Flint; Financial Services

October 2014 (Revised April 2018)
Supplement

Creditor Activism in Sovereign Debt: Argentina vs. Holdout Investors (B)

By: Laura Alfaro, Gaurav Toshniwal and Hilary White

April 2011
Supplement

Felipe Calderón: Leading with Light and Power (B)

By: J. Bruce Harreld and David Lane

This sequence of cases explores how leaders get their team focused on framing, analyzing, and ultimately acting upon complex decisions. The A case provides an inside look as President of Mexico, Felipe Calderon, works with his cabinet ministers to decide how to... View Details

Keywords: Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Decision Choices and Conditions; Cases; Crime and Corruption; State Ownership; Business or Company Management; Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; Finance; Performance; Management Teams; Strategic Planning; Energy Industry; Mexico City

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February 2022 (Revised April 2022)
Case

BUA Group

By: John D. Macomber, Pippa Tubman Armerding and Wale Lawal

BUA Group must decide between investments in cement, road building, power generation, or sugar. Private businesses are important to economic development in Africa. Students must assess the competitive nature of each of these industries, the magnitude of capital... View Details

Keywords: Investing; Transportation; Strategy; Project Finance; Agribusiness; Construction; Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry; Nigeria; Africa

12 Oct 2010
Working Paper Summaries

Crashes and Collateralized Lending

Keywords: by Jakub W. Jurek & Erik Stafford; Banking; Financial Services

November 2010 (Revised October 2011)
Case

Oriflame S.A. (A)

By: David F. Hawkins, Karol Misztal and Daniela Beyersdorfer

A direct-selling cosmetics company involved in emerging markets exhibits significant foreign exchange risk exposure and profitability swings in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Students must review the company's use of derivative instruments and other hedging... View Details

Keywords: Accounting; Financial Crisis; Currency Exchange Rate; Financial Strategy; Investment; Management Analysis, Tools, and Techniques; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Beauty and Cosmetics Industry

March 2006 (Revised November 2010)
Background Note

Protecting Foreign Investors

By: Louis T. Wells Jr.

Describes the emergence of several kinds of efforts to assure the safety of foreign investment in emerging markets: international arbitration, expanded official political risk insurance, credit from government agencies, and intervention by investors' home governments.... View Details

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; Risk Management; Emerging Markets; Agreements and Arrangements; Business and Government Relations; Safety

2024
Working Paper

Who Values Democracy?

This paper tests the conventional view that redistribution is central to the democratization process using data from stock markets. Consistent with this view, democratizations have a large, negative impact on asset valuations driven by a rise in redistribution risk.... View Details

Keywords: Government and Politics; Risk and Uncertainty; Financial Crisis; Macroeconomics; Financial Markets; Valuation

June 2016
Case

The Redevelopment of Palazzo Tornabuoni (A)

By: Sid Yog, Arthur I Segel and Ricardo Andrade

In the spring of 2004, Byrne Murphy and his partners at Fingen Group discussed options to redevelop Palazzo Tornabuoni, an iconic 15th century palace in the heart of Florence, Italy. The possibilities included turning the upper floors into office space, hotel rooms,... View Details

Keywords: Palazzo Tornabuoni; Private Residence Club; Florence; Italy; Timeshare; Fractional Ownership; Property; Real Estate Industry; Italy; Europe

January 2008 (Revised August 2008)
Case

The Time Warner Center: Mixed-Use Development

By: A. Eugene Kohn, Arthur I Segel and David Lane

Despite the failure of other attempts to bring mixed use development in New York City, Related Companies in 2004 opened Time Warner Center, a huge complex incorporating offices, shops, restaurants, music auditoriums, a hotel, and luxury apartments on Columbus Circle in... View Details

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Marketing; Buildings and Facilities; Construction; Development Economics; New York (city, NY)

October 2014 (Revised June 2016)
Case

MasterCard: Driving Financial Inclusion

By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Natalie Kindred

MasterCard CEO Ajay Banga was investing significant time and attention to increase financial inclusion among individuals with historically no access to banking or financial services in countries around the world with large underserved populations. The effort included... View Details

Keywords: Marketing; Financial Services; Financial And Social Return; Financial Inclusion; Strategic Management; South Africa; Nigeria; Ajay Banga; Marketing Strategy; Social Marketing; Financial Services Industry; Banking Industry; South Africa; Nigeria

Forthcoming
Article

Transitory and Permanent Cash Flow Shocks in Debt Contract Design

By: Le Ma, Anywhere Sikochi and Yajun Xiao

We examine how lenders design contracts to account for transitory and permanent cash flow shocks facing borrowers. We find that volatile transitory cash flow shocks are associated with fewer liquidity covenants, indicating financial flexibility that enables firms to... View Details

Keywords: Debt Covenants; Cash Flow Shocks; Debt Contracting; Likelihood Of Default; Cash Flow; System Shocks

January 2022
Article

Replicating Private Equity with Value Investing, Homemade Leverage, and Hold-to-Maturity Accounting

By: Erik Stafford

The contributions of asset selection and incremental leverage to buyout investment performance are more important than typically assumed or estimated to be. Buyout funds select small firms with distinct value characteristics. Public equities with these characteristics... View Details

Keywords: Replicating Portfolio; Private Equity; Investment Portfolio

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May 2021
Article

Preparing for a Pandemic: Accelerating Vaccine Availability

By: Amrita Ahuja, Susan Athey, Arthur Baker, Eric Budish, Juan Camilo Castillo, Rachel Glennerster, Scott Duke Kominers, Michael Kremer, Jean Lee, Canice Prendergast, Christopher M. Snyder, Alex Tabarrok, Brandon Joel Tan and Witold Wiecek

Vaccinating the world’s population quickly in a pandemic has enormous health and economic benefits. We analyze the problem faced by governments in determining the scale and structure of procurement for vaccines. We analyze alternative approaches to procurement, arguing... View Details

Keywords: Vaccines; Procurement; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Acquisition; Cooperation

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October 2017
Case

Shift Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas Eisenmann and Nicole Tempest Keller

In 2017, management at Shift, an online marketplace that uses a “high touch,” concierge approach to buy and sell used cars, was formulating plans for the San Francisco–based startup’s next phase of expansion. One option was to preserve Shift’s current business model... View Details

Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Market Design; Multi-Sided Platforms; Marketplace Matching; Growth and Development Strategy; Decision Choices and Conditions; Auto Industry; Retail Industry; United States

02 Mar 2011
News

HBS Faculty on Revolution in the Middle East and North Africa

22 Mar 2024
Research & Ideas

Open Source Software: The $9 Trillion Resource Companies Take for Granted

exposing themselves to the risk that a single person getting run over by a bus may blow up the whole company.” For hiring managers, there’s clear reason to recruit and retain open source experts. “Companies are recognizing that there's... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Computer; Information Technology; Technology

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