predictions - Publications - Faculty & Research

08 Dec 2009
First Look

First Look: Dec. 8

have documented the modest (though reliable) link between household income and well-being, we examined the accuracy of laypeople's intuitions about this relationship by asking people from across the income spectrum to report their own happiness and to View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

30 Jan 2007
First Look

First Look: January 30, 2007

Working PapersDo Employment Protections Reduce Productivity? Evidence from U.S. States Authors:David H. Autor, William R. Kerr, and Adriana D. Kugler Abstract Theory predicts that mandated employment protections may reduce productivity... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

02 Feb 2023
News

Can We Really Engineer a Climate Fix?

Photo credits: Aaron Sabin; Russ Campbell Subscribe on iTunes Subscribe on Spotify More Skydeck episodes Dan Morrell: Hi, this is Dan Morrell, host of Skydeck. This is the first episode of "Clearing the Air", a three-part series focused on the business of carbon... View Details

November 2008
Journal Article

Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui

Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Financial Markets; Investment; Investment Return; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Performance Expectations; Groups and Teams; Research; Value Creation

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January 2011 (Revised September 2011)
Case

Caterpillar, Inc. (A)

By: David F. Hawkins

2010 Healthcare Reform Act eliminates Medicare Part D subsidy and Caterpillar recognizes a $100 million change. View Details

Keywords: Information Infrastructure; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms; Employment; Cost vs Benefits; Forecasting and Prediction; Change Management; Asset Management; Financial Strategy; Activity Based Costing and Management; Business or Company Management; Technology Industry; Manufacturing Industry; United States

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30 Apr 2019
First Look

New Research and Ideas, April 30, 2019

engagement? To answer these questions, we utilized self-determination theory to examine whether reward satisfaction predicted employee well-being, job satisfaction, intrinsic motivation, and affective commitment, as well as valuable... View Details

Keywords: Dina Gerdeman

07 Aug 2000
Research & Ideas

The Business of Biotech

it as a chronic condition like cardiovascular disease, rather than as an acute, fatal disease," Maderis concludes. Hitting The Target When human lives are at stake, the urgency involved in turning such predictions into reality goes... View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna; Biotechnology; Health; Technology

25 Jul 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas: July 25, 2017

cast may deviate dramatically from pure QV predictions because of the complex and refined nature of equilibrium play. Most plausibly, voting behavior and outcomes would be determined predominately by social and psychological forces, would... View Details

Keywords: Carmen Nobel

19 Jul 2016
First Look

July 19, 2016

might be appropriate to redesign (“refactor”) a system, to reduce what has been called “architectural debt.” Unfortunately, we lack robust data by which to evaluate the relationship between architectural design choices and system maintenance costs, and hence to View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Aug 2014
First Look

First Look: August 5

between the firm and an outside investor. A common assumption in the signaling game literature is that beliefs among the participants in the game are refined using the Intuitive Criterion refinement. Our experimental results provide evidence that the View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

04 May 2010
First Look

First Look: May 4

organs faces widespread disapproval. We survey a representative sample of Americans to assess disapproval for several forms of kidney markets and to understand why individuals disapprove by identifying factors that predict disapproval,... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

26 Oct 2010
First Look

First Look: October 26, 2010

in payout taxes, we show that this prediction holds well. Payout taxes have a large impact on the dynamics of corporate investment and growth. Investment is "locked in" to profitable firms when payout is heavily taxed. Thus,... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

19 Aug 2024
News

Quantum Leap

pharmaceuticals, logistics to web services—will be disrupted, with experts predicting that quantum machines will rapidly perform tasks that would take today’s fastest digital supercomputers years to complete. Quantum computers will be... View Details

14 Mar 2011
Research & Ideas

Keeping Credit Flowing to Consumers in Need

Americans borrow to live. Weekly paychecks cannot cover the predictable but sporadic need for increased spending-for instance, medication for a sick child or new brakes for an old car. The challenge is to avoid the temptation of... View Details

Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Financial Services; Construction; Real Estate

21 Jun 2021
Blog Post

Celebrating the Past, Crafting the Future Part 1: HBS/HKS Faculty Reflections

fortunate the HBS | HKS Joint Degree Program, which was given birth in a tumultuous year, has thrived to reach this milestone year. Although it is impossible to predict what the next decade will hold for us, the ongoing commitment and... View Details

January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Advanced Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry

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January – March 2012
Article

Bond Risk, Bond Return Volatility, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

By: Luis M. Viceira

This paper explores time variation in bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and with consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yield on... View Details

Keywords: Bonds; Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Interest Rates; Inflation and Deflation; Investment Return; Risk and Uncertainty; Currency Exchange Rate; Cash Flow; Stocks

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Ownership (OWN): Define Success, Create Advantage, Build to Last, Engage Effectively - Course Catalog

scaling a business or sustaining a culture. We will explore the competitive advantages and disadvantages of different ownership models, how companies can use ownership as a competitive weapon, and how to predict what companies will do... View Details

01 Dec 2020
News

AI Enhances Diagnostic Care

human intelligence rather than replaces it. AI—and its subsets of machine learning and deep learning—has been transformative in the field of radiology, propelling it light years beyond Röntgen’s first X-ray image of his wife’s hand. It enables pattern recognition, data... View Details

Keywords: Jennifer Gillespie

September 1992
Case

Vintage Directions, Inc.

By: Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on the problem of determining whether to continue with a start-up after the first market test. The company has seen product success but is far from break-even and needs additional financing. Focuses on opportunity analysis and the use of market data to assess... View Details

Keywords: Product Launch; Product Marketing; Marketing Strategy; Forecasting and Prediction; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Business or Company Management

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