Publications

Publications

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  • 01 Jun 1997
  • News

HBS Cyberposium Brings Online Future into Focus

Future of Retailing." Participants reported success in leveraging advanced technology to reach more customers and provide better service. Tuck Rickards (MBA '91), CEO of Virtual Emporium, an online shopping company, predicted that "in the... View Details
Keywords: Meg Gardner
  • 13 Nov 2012
  • First Look

First Look: November 13

ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in research and development (R&D) can have quite divergent, but predictably divergent, future paths. Our... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 09 Jan 2006
  • What Do You Think?

Should More Transparency Extend to Education for Management?

students. Manohar Kamath put it this way: "We need to extend transparency. If grades do not predict work performance, then there is a problem in the design of management education." Michael Robbins wrote, "We need schools... View Details
Keywords: by James Heskett; Education
  • 17 Jan 2012
  • First Look

First Look: January 17

http://www.people.hbs.edu/mbaker/cv/papers/bcfsurvey2v20.pdf Comovement and Predictability Relationships Between Bonds and the Cross-Section of Stocks Authors:Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler Publication:Review of Asset Pricing Studies... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 01 May 2007
  • First Look

First Look: May 1, 2007

property rights in developing countries on the level and composition of industrial development. We develop a North-South product cycle model in which Northern innovation, Southern imitation, and FDI are all endogenous. Our model predicts... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • Web

Introduction - Option Pricing in Theory & Practice: The Nobel Prize Research of Robert C. Merton - Exhibits - Historical Collections

the trading floor. The model offers a methodology to predict the seemingly unpredictable by using the lessons of complex mathematics and probability theory to forecast stock valuations, making it possible to successfully manage risk in... View Details
  • 18 Oct 2004
  • Research & Ideas

The Bias of Wall Street Analysts

the commissions. After deregulation of rates in 1975, commission rates predictably dropped, and the brokerages were left with a fixed cost of sell-side analyst operations and a shortfall in revenues to fund these activities. Clearly, the... View Details
Keywords: by Ann Cullen; Financial Services
  • July – August 2011
  • Article

What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?

By: Boris Groysberg, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria and George Serafeim
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors... View Details
Keywords: Competition; Forecasting and Prediction; Industry Growth; Judgments; Performance; Valuation; Price; Quality; Innovation and Invention; Organizational Culture; Competency and Skills; Surveys
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  • June 2024
  • Case

Vinalhaven: The Downtown Project

By: Richard S. Ruback, Matthew Preble, Ruth Page and Dave Habeeb
Vinalhaven is an island community located approximately 12 miles off the coast of Maine. The island has a year-round population of about 1,300 people as of 2022, with an additional 3,000 people who reside on the island in the summer months. The two largest industries... View Details
Keywords: Climate Change; Environmental Regulation; Environmental Sustainability; Natural Resources; Natural Environment; Weather; Sustainable Cities; Forecasting and Prediction; Construction; Property; Infrastructure; Capital Budgeting; Projects; Project Finance; Negotiation; United States; Maine
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  • June 2018
  • Supplement

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (C)

By: Marco Di Maggio, Benjamin C. Esty and Gregory Saldutte
Analyzes Snap’s value and analyst recommendations following the events described in the (B) case. View Details
Keywords: Sell-side Analysts; Underwriters; Investment Banking; Social Network; Discounted Cash Flow; Cost Of Capital; Conflicts Of Interest; Corporate Governance; Advertising; Quiet Period; Business Startups; Digital Marketing; Initial Public Offering; Information Infrastructure; Valuation; Venture Capital; Forecasting and Prediction; Social Media; Advertising Industry; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Web Services Industry; United States; California
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  • 2013
  • Chapter

Behavioral Corporate Finance: A Current Survey

By: Malcolm Baker and Jeffrey Wurgler
We survey the theory and evidence of behavioral corporate finance, which generally takes one of two approaches. The market timing and catering approach views managerial financing and investment decisions as rational managerial responses to securities mispricing. The... View Details
Keywords: Managerial Roles; Theory; Corporate Finance; Financial Management; Investment; Market Timing; Behavioral Finance; Prejudice and Bias; Economics; Forecasting and Prediction
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  • April 2001
  • Supplement

Acer America: Development of the Aspire

By: Christopher A. Bartlett
Consists of five segments. Segment 1 shows Culver and Pai discussing the tensions between Taiwan and the United States and the resulting performance problems with Aspire; Segment 2 features Culver and Shih describing the changes Acer made as a result of the problems... View Details
Keywords: Digital Marketing; Transformation; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Outcome or Result; Problems and Challenges; Information Infrastructure; Internet and the Web; Computer Industry; Taiwan; United States
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  • 09 Jan 2007
  • First Look

First Look: January 9, 2007

Paper No. 9680.) Abstract Patent pools are an important but little-studied economic institution. In this paper, we first make a set of predictions about the licensing terms associated with patent pools. The theoretical framework View Details
Keywords: Martha Lagace
  • 28 Jan 2002
  • Research & Ideas

Read All About It! Newspapers Lose Web War

business. However, despite these perceived limitations, the newspaper industry largely recognized the threat that digital media posed to the traditional printed newspaper business. In fact, many industry analysts were predicting a... View Details
Keywords: by Sean Silverthorne; Entertainment & Recreation; Information; Publishing
  • 01 Dec 2014
  • News

Alumni and Faculty Books for December 2014

The period before the Great Depression saw the rise of economic forecasters, pioneers who used the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. Friedman, director of HBS’s Business History... View Details
  • 25 Mar 2021
  • Research & Ideas

Steer Clear of the Blind Spots That Derail Experiments

bring data and experiments into their organizations." However, the use of experiments remains spotty, with even data-driven companies still figuring out how to make the most of them. After observing several technology companies making the same View Details
Keywords: by Danielle Kost
  • April 2012
  • Article

Bouncing Out of the Banking System: An Empirical Analysis of Involuntary Bank Account Closures

By: Dennis Campbell, F. Asis Martinez-Jerez and Peter Tufano
Using a new database, we document the factors that relate to the extent of involuntary consumer bank account closure resulting from excessive overdraft activity. Consumers who have accounts involuntarily closed for overdraft activity may have limited or no access to... View Details
Keywords: Mathematical Methods; Customers; Social Issues; Outcome or Result; Budgets and Budgeting; Forecasting and Prediction; Competition; Banks and Banking; Policy; Personal Characteristics; Credit; Employment; United States
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  • September 2011
  • Supplement

TopCoder (B)

By: Karim R. Lakhani, Eric Lonstein and Stephanie Pokrywa
Metrology plays a key role in the manufacture of mechanical components. Traditionally it is used extensively in a pre-process stage where a manufacturer does process planning, design, and ramp-up, and in post-process off-line inspection to establish proof of quality.... View Details
Keywords: Industry Growth; Forecasting and Prediction; Change Management; Production; Machinery and Machining; Planning; Quality; Competition; Diversification; Technology Adoption; Measurement and Metrics; Product Design; Manufacturing Industry
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  • 21 Mar 2017
  • First Look

First Look at New Research, March 21

model that explains employees’ moral evaluations of and reactions to referral practices based on the power relationship between a referrer and a hiring manager. Specifically, we predict that employees are more likely to see the acceptance... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne
  • 14 Jul 2015
  • First Look

First Look: July 14, 2015

previously untested cheating-as-stress-reduction hypothesis, we predicted a dose-response relationship between cheating and reductions in cortisol and negative affect. Taken together, this research marks the first foray into the... View Details
Keywords: Sean Silverthorne