predictions - Publications - Faculty & Research

June 2018 (Revised October 2018)
Teaching Note

Valuing Snap After the IPO Quiet Period (A), (B), and (C)

By: Marco Di Maggio and Benjamin C. Esty

Teaching Note for HBS Nos. 218-095, 218-096, and 218-116. View Details

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February 2024
Supplement

ReNew (B): A New Direction

By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen

The global renewables sector was in a slump, but the Indian market was booming. India’s largest renewable electricity generator, ReNew, faced a dilemma: it traded on the Nasdaq in New York, but saw huge opportunity in the Indian market. In response, CEO Sumant Sinha... View Details

Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Entrepreneurship; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Mission and Purpose; Expansion; Market Entry and Exit; Energy Industry; Asia; India

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January 2008
Background Note

Equity Options

By: Joshua Coval and Erik Stafford

The goal of this simulation is to understand the reliance of option values on volatility. When an investor trades an option, they are essentially trading volatility. Therefore, much of the focus in this lesson is on forecasting volatility. Students are able to use two... View Details

Keywords: Volatility; Forecasting and Prediction; Stock Options; Investment Return; Price; Market Transactions; Mathematical Methods; Value

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December 2008
Article

Style Investing and Institutional Investors

By: Kenneth A. Froot and Melvyn Teo

This paper explores institutional investors' trades in stocks grouped by style and the relationship of these trades with equity market returns. It aggregates transactions drawn from a large universe of approximately $6 trillion of institutional funds. To analyze style... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry

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June 2005
Article

Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional Investor Flows

By: K. A. Froot and T. Ramadorai

Keywords: Currencies; Exchange Rates; Purchasing Power Parity; Real Exchange Rate; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Asset Pricing; Financial Services Industry

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September 2004
Article

Decomposing the Persistence of International Equity Flows

By: Kenneth A. Froot and J. Tjornhom Donohue

Keywords: Asset Pricing; Equity Investment; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavioral Finance; Stocks; Investment Return; Market Transactions; Performance Expectations; Personal Characteristics; Financial Services Industry

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20 Feb 2008
First Look

First Look: February 20, 2008

and Jeffrey Wurgler Abstract Abstract We propose and test a catering theory of nominal stock prices. The theory predicts that when investors place higher valuations on low-price firms, managers will maintain share prices at lower levels,... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

2010
Working Paper

When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs

By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga

We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be... View Details

Keywords: Earnings Management; Mergers and Acquisitions; Business Subsidiaries; Restructuring; Forecasting and Prediction; Insolvency and Bankruptcy; Initial Public Offering; Price; Reports; Research

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25 Sep 2007
First Look

First Look: September 25, 2007

of the "long tail" principle argue that lower transaction and search costs will lead to a shift away from hit content and cause more fragmentation in consumers' choices. This perspective is in sharp contrast with the more established theory of superstars,... View Details

Keywords: Martha Lagace

19 Oct 2012
Research & Ideas

Digital Technology’s Profound Game Change for Marketers

technology is radically transforming the marketing function and the role of the marketing professional. The changes rippling through the marketing industry goes far beyond the simple mantra of "follow the eyeballs" to different screens. Gartner analyst Laura... View Details

Keywords: by Jeffrey Bussgang; Advertising; Technology

01 Jun 2017
News

A Finger on the Pulse of the Financial System

What if it were possible to accurately predict and maybe even prevent the next global financial crisis? Harvard’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability (BFFS) Project, conceived at HBS and launched in July 2016, aims to do just that.... View Details

01 Mar 2010
Op-Ed

A Golden Opportunity for Ford and GM

Mulally showcased his new model range. Car experts and reviewers alike agreed the new models revitalized Ford. Whitacre also unveiled a new line of cars, admittedly trailing Ford, particularly in hybrids. He boldly predicted GM would be... View Details

Keywords: by Bill George; Auto

27 Mar 2005
Research & Ideas

Should I Pay the Bribe?

been more salient than others. I've been surprised by how little progress we have made with the standard economic model of incentives (to fight corruption). For example, I don't think we could have predicted the little use we have for... View Details

Keywords: by Cynthia D. Churchwell

23 Feb 2004
Research & Ideas

How Corporate Responsibility is Changing in Asia

in the developing world, Jeffrey Ballinger was the first to criticize Nike's labor policies in Asia. When he arrived in Indonesia in 1988, the country's daily minimum wage was about $0.86. By 1997, it had tripled to just over two dollars. Despite View Details

Keywords: by Julia Hanna

10 Jul 2000
Research & Ideas

Privatization and the New European Economy

"the average amount of global privatization was valued at between US$70 to $80 billion. Experts predict that the potential for privatization in Europe in the decade ahead will have a value of between US$250 and 450 billion. This... View Details

Keywords: by James E. Aisner; Air Transportation; Transportation

January 1999 (Revised June 2006)
Case

Advanced Technologies, Inc.

By: Thomas R. Piper

The CEO of a semiconductor equipment manufacturer is assessing the financial forecasts and financing plan prepared by the chief financial officer. Continued rapid growth will create substantial financing pressures, especially if profitability fails to recover and/or if... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Earnings Management; Financial Condition; Financial Reporting; Risk and Uncertainty; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Outcome or Result; Growth and Development; Crisis Management; Profit; Financial Strategy; Semiconductor Industry; Manufacturing Industry

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20 Jun 2017
First Look

First Look at New Research and Ideas, June 20

“waver” over time in the relative weight they put on them. The model predicts that good news about fundamentals can trigger large price bubbles. We analyze the patterns of cash-flow news that generate the largest bubbles, the reasons why... View Details

Keywords: Sean Silverthorne

05 Nov 2014
What Do You Think?

Are We Entering an Era of Neuromanagement?

businesses." The predominant view was that the practice at present has many limitations. Ann Romaine-Adelstein commented, "I doubt we can predict with validity from a scan yet who will work hard, be innovative or exercise great... View Details

Keywords: by James Heskett

April 2005
Article

The Geography of Equity Analysis

By: Christopher J. Malloy

I provide evidence that geographically proximate analysts are more accurate than other analysts. Stock returns immediately surrounding forecast revisions suggest that local analysts impact prices more than other analysts. These effects are strongest for firms located... View Details