Discounted Cash Flows - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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March 2022
Article

Loan Types and the Bank Lending Channel

By: Victoria Ivashina, Luc Laeven and Enrique Moral-Benito

Using credit-registry data for Spain and Peru, we document that four main types of commercial credit—asset-based loans, cash flow loans, trade finance and leasing—are easily identifiable and represent the bulk of corporate credit. We show that credit growth dynamics... View Details

Keywords: Bank Credit; Loan Types; Bank Lending Channel; Credit Registry; Banks and Banking; Credit; Financing and Loans

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July 2023
Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet

In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science

December 2008 (Revised March 2009)
Case

Rosetree Mortgage Opportunity Fund

By: Victoria Ivashina and Andre F. Perold

In December 2008, in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Rosetree Capital Management was evaluating the purchase of a pool of U.S. residential mortgages. The firm had formed an investment vehicle to acquire troubled residential mortgages... View Details

Keywords: Financial Crisis; Borrowing and Debt; Mortgages; Investment; Housing; Valuation; United States

November 2008 (Revised June 2022)
Case

Tottenham Hotspur plc

By: Lauren H. Cohen, Joshua D. Coval and Christopher J. Malloy

Tottenham Hotspur Football Club is a publicly-owned professional soccer team based in London, England. The club's chairman, Daniel Levy, is contemplating a significant investment in physical assets, including the development of a new stadium as well as the acquisition... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Capital Budgeting; Decision Making; Competency and Skills; Cash Flow; Investment; Buildings and Facilities; Sports; Investment Portfolio; Financial Strategy; Sports Industry; London

2009
Simulation

Finance Simulation: Blackstone/Celanese: No. 3712.

By: Nabil N. El-Hage and Timothy A. Luehrman

The Finance Simulation: Blackstone/Celanese is based on the landmark acquisition of Celanese AG by the Blackstone Group in 2003. Students play the role of either Celanese or Blackstone and conduct due diligence, establish deal terms, respond to bids and counter-bids,... View Details

Keywords: Bids and Bidding; Finance; Mergers and Acquisitions; Valuation; Leveraged Buyouts; Negotiation

December 1993 (Revised June 2000)
Case

Kochman, Reidt + Haigh, Inc.

By: Richard S. Ruback and Roy Burstin

A small company faces the dilemma of how to finance growth (i.e., internally generated cash flows vs. outside financing sources). An innovative concept positions the company in promoting a niche within the kitchen-cabinet industry and in looking for an optimal way of... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Business Growth and Maturation; Entrepreneurship; Corporate Finance; Growth and Development Strategy; Consumer Products Industry; Utilities Industry

January 2020 (Revised July 2020)
Supplement

MoviePass: The 'Get Big Fast' Strategy

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Daniel Fisher

In August 2017, MoviePass dramatically lowered its subscription price from $50 per month to just $10 for up to one movie per day. The idea was to rapidly scale the business to the point where they could generate incremental revenue streams form related businesses... View Details

March 1989 (Revised October 1994)
Case

Philip Morris Companies and Kraft, Inc.

By: Richard S. Ruback

Gives students the opportunity to explore the effect of substantial free cash flow on corporate acquisition and operating strategies. Students are also given the opportunity to extract information from the common stock prices of the participating firms. A variety of... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Strategic Planning; Acquisition; Strategy; Restructuring; Valuation; Stocks

2020
Working Paper

An Empirical Guide to Investor-Level Private Equity Data from Preqin

By: Juliane Begenau, Claudia Robles-Garcia, Emil Siriwardane and Lulu Wang

This note provides guidance on the use of investor-level private equity data from Preqin for empirical research. Preqin primarily sources its cash flow data through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests with U.S. public pensions. Our focus is on the components of... View Details

Keywords: Private Equity Returns; Prequin Data; Private Equity; Analytics and Data Science; Investment Return

September 2003
Case

Valuing a Cross-Border LBO: Bidding on the Yell Group

By: Mihir A. Desai, Paolo Notarnicola and Mark Veblen

A team of private equity investors must value the leveraged buyout of a Yellow Pages business that operated in both the United States and the United Kingdom. In the process, they must wrestle with issues of how to conduct cross-border valuations and how to value a... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Cash Flow; Private Equity; Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues; Valuation

January 2024 (Revised May 2024)
Case

Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy with Variable Dividends

By: Benjamin C. Esty, Elisabeth Kempf and E. Scott Mayfield

In February 2021, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (an independent oil and gas company based in Texas), was considering the possibility of enhancing the firm’s capital return strategy by introducing a variable dividend tied to cash flows in... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Finance; Cash Flow; Financial Management; Financial Strategy; Value Creation; Decision Choices and Conditions; Investment Return; Profit; Policy; Business and Shareholder Relations; Energy Industry; United States; North America; Texas

Research Summary

Time Varying Expected Returns, Stochastic Dividend Yields, and Default Probabilities: Linking the Credit Risk and Equity Literature (with George Chacko and Jens Hilscher)

In standard structural bond pricing models, the firm defaults once the market value of assets has fallen below a threshold. Expected returns, or at least dividend yields, are assumed to be constant, which implies that any asset value movement is permanent and has the... View Details

March 1993
Case

Clarion Optical Co.

By: Michael J. Roberts and Howard H. Stevenson

Focuses on two individuals' attempts to purchase Clarion Optical Co. Forces students to consider alternative proposals for financing the purchase; generate pro forma cash flows to assess the feasibility of these proposals; estimate the sources and magnitude of... View Details

Keywords: Leveraged Buyouts; Financing and Loans; Investment Return; Cash Flow; Forecasting and Prediction

April 2000
Case

Financing of Project Achieve, The (A)

By: Mihir A. Desai

An entrepreneur is forced to analyze the tradeoffs between different equity providers through a detailed analysis of venture financing terms and cash flow forecasts. The founder of a Web-based IMS for schools must negotiate a term sheet, determine funding needs, value... View Details

Keywords: Business Startups; Forecasting and Prediction; Venture Capital; Cash Flow; Equity; Negotiation Deal; Valuation

January 2018 (Revised January 2021)
Background Note

Customer Lifetime Social Value (CLSV)

By: Elie Ofek, Barak Libai and Eitan Muller

One of the hallmarks of the digital revolution is the rise of the socially connected consumer. Concomitantly, the ability of companies to affect and measure the social interactions among customers has grown tremendously. Consequently, in assessing the full value of... View Details

Keywords: Customer Lifetime Value; Customer Management; Social Contagion; Word Of Mouth; Customer Engagement; Customer Value and Value Chain; Measurement and Metrics; Customer Relationship Management

Pioneer Natural Resources: Enhancing the Capital Return Strategy With Variable Dividends

In February 2021, Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources (an independent oil and gas company based in Texas), was considering the possibility of enhancing the firm’s capital return strategy by introducing a variable dividend tied to cash... View Details

June 1992
Case

Arundel Partners: The Sequel Project

By: Timothy A. Luehrman and William A. Teichner

A group of investors is considering buying the sequel rights for a portfolio of feature films. They need to determine how much to offer to pay and how to structure a contract with one or more major U.S. film studios. The case contains cash flow estimates for all major... View Details

Keywords: Rights; Debt Securities; Contracts; Cash Flow; Valuation; Capital Budgeting; Entertainment and Recreation Industry; Motion Pictures and Video Industry; United States

December 1991 (Revised November 1993)
Case

U.S. Bank of Washington

A vice president of the U.S. Bank of Washington, a subsidiary of U.S. Bancorp, is asked to review a $6.5 million loan request from the Redhook Ale Brewery, a Seattle-based microbrewery. The case provides an understanding of the U.S. commercial banking industry and the... View Details

Keywords: Cash Flow; Financing and Loans; Financial Statements; Commercial Banking; Banking Industry; Seattle

03 Nov 2016
News

Here's How Big Government Could Help Small Businesses

July 2010 (Revised August 2021)
Supplement

Vereinigung Hamburger Schiffsmakler und Schiffsagenten e.V. (VHSS): Valuing Ships (CW)

By: Benjamin C. Esty and Albert W. Sheen

After booming for more than five years, the global shipping (maritime) industry experienced a dramatic crash in late 2008 as the global financial system froze and the global economy slid into recession. Ship charter rates (revenue) fell by as much as 90% causing prices... View Details

Keywords: Fair Value Accounting; Economic Slowdown and Stagnation; Capital Markets; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Banks and Banking; Price; Price Bubble; Contracts; Crisis Management; Market Transactions; Valuation; Shipping Industry

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