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- All HBS Web
(441)
- News (102)
- Research (278)
- Events (1)
- Multimedia (1)
- Faculty Publications (123)
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- 2021
- Working Paper
Real Credit Cycles
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer and Stephen J. Terry
We incorporate diagnostic expectations, a psychologically founded model of overreaction to news, into a workhorse business cycle model with heterogeneous firms and risky debt. A realistic degree of diagnosticity, estimated from the forecast errors of managers of U.S.... View Details
Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, Andrei Shleifer, and Stephen J. Terry. "Real Credit Cycles." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28416, January 2021.
- Article
Medium-term Business Cycles
By: Diego Comin and Mark Gertler
Over the postwar period, many industrialized countries have experienced significant medium-frequency oscillations between periods of robust growth versus relative stagnation. Conventional business cycle filters, however, tend to sweep these oscillations into the trend.... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Fluctuation; Information Technology; Research and Development; Resource Allocation; Framework; Trends; Performance Efficiency; Performance Productivity
Comin, Diego, and Mark Gertler. "Medium-term Business Cycles." American Economic Review 96, no. 3 (June 2006).
- 2007
- Working Paper
Irving Fisher, Economic Forecasting, and the Myth of the Business Cycle
A premier economist of the twentieth century and a founder of neoclassical thought, Irving Fisher was also an active participant in the field of economic forecasting. Fisher made theoretical contributions to the understanding of economic fluctuations, popularized the... View Details
- June 2020
- Article
U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles
By: Falk Bräuning and Victoria Ivashina
Foreign banks’ lending to firms in emerging market economies (EMEs) is large and denominated predominantly in U.S. dollars. This creates a direct connection between U.S. monetary policy and EME credit cycles. We estimate that over a typical U.S. monetary easing cycle,... View Details
Keywords: Global Business Cycle; Monetary Policy; Reaching For Yield; Money; Policy; Credit; Emerging Markets
Bräuning, Falk, and Victoria Ivashina. "U.S. Monetary Policy and Emerging Market Credit Cycles." Journal of Monetary Economics 112 (June 2020): 57–76.
- August 2004
- Article
Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
The paper presents an overlapping-generations model where agents vote on whether to open or close the economy to international capital flows. Political decisions are shaped by the risk over capital and labor returns. In an open economy, the capitalists (old) completely... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Development Economics; Voting; Risk and Uncertainty; Cash Flow; Saving; Investment; Economy; Wages
Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Capital Controls, Risk and Liberalization Cycles." Review of International Economics 12, no. 3 (August 2004): 412–434.
- 29 Sep 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
- 2016
- Working Paper
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
By: David Lopez-Salido, Jeremy C. Stein and Egon Zakrajsek
Using U.S. data from 1929 to 2013, we show that elevated credit-market sentiment in year t – 2 is associated with a decline in economic activity in years t and t + 1. Underlying this result is the existence of predictable mean reversion in credit-market conditions.... View Details
Lopez-Salido, David, Jeremy C. Stein, and Egon Zakrajsek. "Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 21879, January 2016.
- Article
Markups and the Business Cycle
By: J. J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford
Keywords: Business Cycles
Rotemberg, J. J., and Michael Woodford. "Markups and the Business Cycle." NBER Macroeconomics Annual 6 (1991).
- 04 Mar 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
Credit-Market Sentiment and the Business Cycle
- May 2010
- Article
Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles
By: Victoria Ivashina and David Scharfstein
Cyclicality in the supply of business credit has been the focus of a considerable amount of research. This cyclicality can stem from shocks to borrowers' collateral, which affect firms' ability to raise capital if agency and information problems are significant (Ben S.... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Capital; Credit; Banks and Banking; Financing and Loans; System Shocks; Financial Services Industry
Ivashina, Victoria, and David Scharfstein. "Loan Syndication and Credit Cycles." American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 100, no. 2 (May 2010): 57–61.
- 05 Nov 2009
- Working Paper Summaries
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
- 2010
- Working Paper
Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries
By: Diego A. Comin, Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha and Luis Serven
We build a two-country asymmetric DSGE model with two features: (i) endogenous and slow diffusion of technologies from the developed to the developing country, and (ii) adjustment costs to investment flows. We calibrate the model to match the Mexico-U.S. trade and FDI... View Details
Keywords: Business Cycles; Developing Countries and Economies; Trade; International Finance; Foreign Direct Investment; Mathematical Methods; Mexico; United States
Comin, Diego A., Norman Loayza, Farooq Pasha, and Luis Serven. "Medium Term Business Cycles in Developing Countries." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-029, October 2009. (Revise and resubmit at the American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics.)
- February 2011
- Module Note
Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization
By: Diego A. Comin
Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization is one of the core modules in Business Government and the International Economy (BGIE), a course for the required curriculum of the Harvard Business School. BGIE teaches the economic, political and historical... View Details
Keywords: Fluctuation; Business Cycles; Trade; Business Education; Curriculum and Courses; Capital; Cash Flow; Globalization; Problems and Challenges; China
Comin, Diego A. "Business Cycles and the New Challenges of Globalization." Harvard Business School Module Note 711-064, February 2011.
- July 1974
- Article
International Trade: The Product Life Cycle Approach
By: Louis T Wells Jr
Wells, Louis T., Jr. "International Trade: The Product Life Cycle Approach." Ritsumeikan keieigaku [Ritsumeikan Business Review] 13, no. 2 (July 1974). (in Japanese.)
- Article
Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History
Keywords: Business Cycles
McCraw, Thomas. "Schumpeter's Business Cycles as Business History." Business History Review 80, no. 2 (Summer 2006): 231–261.
- 1972
- Book
A Product Life Cycle for International Trade?
By: L. T. Wells Jr.
Wells, L. T., Jr., ed. A Product Life Cycle for International Trade? Boston: Harvard Business School, Division of Research, 1972.
- May 2005
- Article
Break Free from the Product Life Cycle
By: Youngme Moon
Moon, Youngme. "Break Free from the Product Life Cycle." Harvard Business Review 83, no. 5 (May 2005).
- 23 Nov 1999
- Research & Ideas
The Future of the Venture Capital Cycle
implies that the side effects associated with periods of rapid growth generate sufficient difficulties that periods of retrenchment are sure to follow. Neoclassical economics teaches us to examine not just the short-run supply and demand... View Details
- 1997
- Book
Generation to Generation: Life Cycles of the Family Business
By: K. Gersick, J. A. Davis, M. M. Hampton and I. Lansberg
Gersick, K., J. A. Davis, M. M. Hampton, and I. Lansberg. Generation to Generation: Life Cycles of the Family Business. Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 1997.