Simulation Models - Publications - Faculty & Research - Harvard Business School

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February 2003 (Revised October 2004)
Background Note

Antamini Simulation Model

By: Peter Tufano

Antamini is a simulation of the value of an investment project whose outcome is uncertain. This case describes the situation facing a natural resource firm as it contemplates bidding on a copper mine in Peru. The bidder faces uncertainties about the ore deposit size... View Details

Keywords: Valuation; Auctions; Investment; Mining; Mining Industry; Peru

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February 2007
Background Note

BASIX Simulation Model

By: Peter Tufano and Shawn A. Cole

Explains how to use Crystal Ball to simulate the insurance decision in the BASIX case. View Details

Keywords: Insurance; Business Model; Valuation; Decisions; Finance; Insurance Industry

2021
Article

ThreeDWorld: A Platform for Interactive Multi-Modal Physical Simulation

By: Chuang Gan, Jeremy Schwartz, Seth Alter, Damian Mrowca, Martin Schrimpf, James Traer, Julian De Freitas, Jonas Kubilius, Abhishek Bhandwaldar, Nick Haber, Megumi Sano, Kuno Kim, Elias Wang, Michael Lingelbach, Aidan Curtis, Kevin Feigelis, Daniel M. Bear, Dan Gutfreund, David Cox, Antonio Torralba, James J. DiCarlo, Joshua B. Tenenbaum, Josh H. McDermott and Daniel L.K. Yamins

We introduce ThreeDWorld (TDW), a platform for interactive multi-modal physical simulation. TDW enables simulation of high-fidelity sensory data and physical interactions between mobile agents and objects in rich 3D environments. Unique properties include: real-time... View Details

Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Platform; Interactive Physical Simulation; Virtual Environment; Multi-modal; AI and Machine Learning

July 2023
Article

Takahashi-Alexander Revisited: Modeling Private Equity Portfolio Outcomes Using Historical Simulations

By: Dawson Beutler, Alex Billias, Sam Holt, Josh Lerner and TzuHwan Seet

In 2001, Dean Takahashi and Seth Alexander of the Yale University Investments Office developed a deterministic model for estimating future cash flows and valuations for the Yale endowment’s private equity portfolio. Their model, which is simple and intuitive, is still... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Investment Portfolio; Analytics and Data Science

December 2002
Background Note

Simulation of Prices, Rates and Cash Flows (A)

Explicitly considers the most common propagation models for financial variables and explains how to determine the statistical properties of these variables and simulate their future values. Covers arithmetic Brownian motion, geometric Brownian motion, mean-reversion,... View Details

Keywords: Price; Cash Flow

Forthcoming
Article

Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs

By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer

How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,... View Details

Keywords: Expectations; Memory; COVID-19 Pandemic; Risk and Uncertainty; Cognition and Thinking

January 1984
Article

A Simulation Analysis of Alternative Pricing Strategies for Dynamic Environments

By: Robert J. Dolan

Researchers of the strategic implications of the well-known demand (e.g., adoption and diffusion) and supply (e.g., experience effects) dynamics have typically sought analytical solutions. Their success in this has been achieved partly by limiting the richness of the... View Details

Keywords: Demand and Consumers; Price; Mathematical Methods; Supply and Industry

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02 Oct 2020
News

Computer Simulations Are Better — and More Affordable — than Ever

2013
Dissertation

Designing Freemium: A Model of Consumer Usage, Upgrade, and Referral Dynamics

By: Clarence Lee, Vineet Kumar and Sunil Gupta

Abstract. Over the past decade "freemium" (free + premium) has become the dominant business model among internet start-ups for its ability to acquire and monetize a large install-base with limited marketing resources. Freemium is a hybrid strategy where a firm offers... View Details

Keywords: Discrete-Continuous Choice Dynamic Structural Models; Bayesian Estimation; Word-of-Mouth; Digital Services; Freemium; Entrepreneurship; Business Model; Motivation and Incentives; Marketing Strategy; Internet and the Web; Consumer Behavior; Marketing Reference Programs; Business Startups

February 2010
Supplement

Real Property Negotiation Game (CW): Excel Model

By: Arthur I. Segel, John Vogel and Justin Seth Ginsburgh

This Excel model is used to analyze the deals made in The Real Property Negotiation Game, which simulates the experience negotiating the sale, purchase, or financing of a property. View Details

Keywords: Property; Negotiation Deal; Sales; Financing and Loans; Mathematical Methods; Real Estate Industry

May 2011
Article

Nonsimultaneous Chains and Dominos in Kidney Paired Donation—Revisited

By: Itai Ashlagi, Duncan S. Gilchrist, Alvin E. Roth and Michael A. Rees

Since 2008 kidney exchange in America has grown in part from the incorporation of non-directed donors in transplant chains rather than simple exchanges. It is controversial whether these chains should be performed simultaneously ("domino paired donation," DPD) or... View Details

Keywords: ABO Incompatibility; Allosensitization; Paired Kidney Exchange; Regional Sharing; Simulation Models; Transplantation Policy; Health Care and Treatment; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Logistics; United States

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Winter 2021
Article

Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help

By: Amar Bhidé

Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical... View Details

Keywords: Economic Methodology; Simulations; Banking; Regulation; Judgment; Economics; Banks and Banking

2020
Article

Making Economics More Useful: How Technological Eclecticism Could Help

By: Amar Bhidé

Keynes thought it would be ‘splendid’ if economists became more like dentists. Disciplinary economics has instead become more like physics in focusing on concise, universal propositions verified through decisive tests. This focus, I argue, limits the practical utility... View Details

Keywords: Economic Methodology; Simulations; Banking; Regulation; Judgment; Economics; Policy

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June 2023 (Revised September 2023)
Simulation

Managing the Customer Journey Marketing Simulation: Adobe's Data-Driven Operating Model (DDOM)

By: Sunil Gupta, Rajiv Lal and Celine Chammas

Adobe started monitoring Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), one of its primary metrics, when it shifted from selling its software in a box to selling the software as a subscription-based cloud service. They wanted to know when, where, and how much to invest in marketing.... View Details

Keywords: Customer Acquisition; Customer Journey; Marketing Strategy; Marketing; Customer Focus and Relationships; Budgets and Budgeting

May 2018
Article

Nowcasting Gentrification: Using Yelp Data to Quantify Neighborhood Change

By: Edward L. Glaeser, Hyunjin Kim and Michael Luca

Data from digital platforms have the potential to improve our understanding of gentrification and enable new measures of how neighborhoods change in close to real time. Combining data on businesses from Yelp with data on gentrification from the Census, Federal Housing... View Details

Keywords: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods; Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, And Changes; Geographic Location; Local Range; Transition; Analytics and Data Science; Measurement and Metrics; Economic Growth; Forecasting and Prediction

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January 2010
Article

Open vs. Closed Innovation: A Model of Discovery and Divergence

By: Esteve Almirall and Ramon Casadesus-Masanell

When is open innovation superior to closed innovation? Through a formal simulation model, we show that an open approach to innovation allows the firm to discover combinations of product features that would be hard to envision under integration. However, when partners... View Details

Keywords: Innovation and Invention; Partners and Partnerships; Goals and Objectives; Cost vs Benefits; Integration; Product

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Article

Applying Random Coefficient Models to Strategy Research: Identifying and Exploring Firm Heterogeneous Effects

By: Juan Alcácer, Wilbur Chung, Ashton Hawk and Gonçalo Pacheco-de-Almeida

Strategy aims at understanding the differential effects of firms’ actions on performance. However, standard regression models estimate only the average effects of these actions across firms. Our paper discusses how random coefficient models (RCMs) may generate new... View Details

Keywords: Strategy; Research; Competitive Advantage; Competitive Strategy; Performance

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2023
Working Paper

Debiasing Treatment Effect Estimation for Privacy-Protected Data: A Model Auditing and Calibration Approach

By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza

Data-driven targeted interventions have become a powerful tool for organizations to optimize business outcomes by utilizing individual-level data from experiments. A key element of this process is the estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE), which... View Details

Keywords: Analytics and Data Science; Consumer Behavior; Marketing

1994
Article

Three-dimensional Finite Element Modeling of a Cervical Vertebra: An Investigation of Burst Fracture Mechanism

By: Kevin J. Bozic, J H Keyak, H B Skinner, H U Bueff and David Bradford

Finite element modeling was used to study the mechanical behavior of a cervical vertebra under axial compressive loading. A three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (FE) model of a mid-cervical vertebra using inhomogeneous material properties was generated from... View Details

Keywords: Performance Expectations; Strength and Weakness; Health; Mathematical Methods; Health Industry

18 Jun 2024
Research & Ideas

Central Banks Missed Inflation Red Flags. This Pricing Model Could Help.

environments.” If central banks had used economic models that account for variations in the speed of firm’s pricing decisions rather than their traditional forecasting tools, policymakers might have detected rising inflation sooner,... View Details

Keywords: by Rachel Layne; Financial Services; Banking

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