Publications
Publications
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- September 2024
- Article
Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock
By: Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol
How do poor entrepreneurs trade off investments in business enterprises versus children's human capital, and how do these choices influence intergenerational socio-economic mobility? To examine this, we exploit experimental variation in household income resulting from... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
How Do Copayment Coupons Affect Branded Drug Prices and Quantities Purchased?
By: Leemore S. Dafny, Kate Ho and Edward Kong
Drug copayment coupons to reduce patient cost-sharing have become nearly ubiquitous for high-priced brand-name prescription drugs. Medicare bans such coupons on the grounds that they are kickbacks that induce utilization, but they are commonly used by... View Details
- August 2024
- Article
The Labor Market Effects of Loan Guarantee Programs
By: Jean-Noël Barrot, Thorsten Martin, Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée
We investigate the labor market effects of a loan guarantee program targeting French SMEs during the financial crisis. Exploiting differences in regional treatment intensity in a border discontinuity design, we uncover a central trade-off for such interventions. While... View Details
- July–August 2024
- Article
Doing More with Less: Overcoming Ineffective Long-Term Targeting Using Short-Term Signals
By: Ta-Wei Huang and Eva Ascarza
Firms are increasingly interested in developing targeted interventions for customers with the best response,
which requires identifying differences in customer sensitivity, typically through the conditional average treatment
effect (CATE) estimation. In theory, to... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Value of Silence: The Effect of UMG’s Licensing Dispute with TikTok on Music Demand
By: Mengjie (Magie) Cheng, Elie Ofek and Hema Yoganarasimhan
Social media platforms like TikTok have transformed how music is discovered, consumed, and
monetized. This study examines the implications of the dispute between TikTok and Universal Music
Group (UMG), which resulted in UMG excluding its music from TikTok from... View Details
- July 2024
- Article
Mass General Brigham’s Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement System: A Decade of Learnings
By: Jason B. Liu, Robert S. Kaplan, David W. Bates, Mario O. Edelen, Rachel C. Sisodia and Andrea L. Pusic
This article describes the strategies that leaders at the Mass General Brigham (MGB) health system have used in launching a standardized patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) collection program in 2012, a major step in the value-based transformation of health care.... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Incrementality Representation Learning: Synergizing Past Experiments for Intervention Personalization
This paper introduces Incrementality Representation Learning (IRL), a novel multitask representation learning framework that predicts heterogeneous causal effects of marketing interventions. By leveraging past experiments, IRL efficiently designs and targets... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Winner Take All: Exploiting Asymmetry in Factorial Designs
By: Matthew DosSantos DiSorbo, Iavor I. Bojinov and Fiammetta Menchetti
Researchers and practitioners have embraced factorial experiments to simultaneously test multiple treatments, each with different levels. With the rise of technologies like Generative AI, factorial experimentation has become even more accessible: it is easier than ever... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Health, Human Capital Development and the Longevity of Japanese Elites Since 710
By: Tom Nicholas and Hiroshi Shimizu
We examine the lifespan of over 40,000 elites in Japan born between 710 and 1912, including samurai warriors, feudal lords, business, political, cultural, and religious leaders at the apex of the social hierarchy. Japanese elites experienced increases in lifespan about... View Details
- 2024
- Working Paper
Personalization and Targeting: How to Experiment, Learn & Optimize
By: Aurelie Lemmens, Jason M.T. Roos, Sebastian Gabel, Eva Ascarza, Hernan Bruno, Elea McDonnell Feit, Brett Gordon, Ayelet Israeli, Carl F. Mela and Oded Netzer
Personalization has become the heartbeat of modern marketing. Advances in causal inference and machine learning enable companies to understand how the same marketing action can impact the choices of individual customers differently. This article provides an academic... View Details
- June 2024
- Article
The Monitoring Role of Social Media
By: Jonas Heese and Joseph Pacelli
In this study, we examine whether social media activity can reduce corporate misconduct. We use the staggered introduction of 3G mobile broadband access across the United States to identify exogenous increases in social media activity and test whether access to 3G... View Details
- April 29, 2024
- Editorial
Stemming the Ripple Effect of Untreated Mental Illness: A Prescription for Change: Reimagining U.S. Healthcare
By: Lidia Moura and Susanna Gallani
- April 2024 (Revised July 2024)
- Case
Market Dynamics and Moral Dilemmas: Novo Nordisk’s Weight-Loss Drugs
By: Joseph L. Badaracco, Tom Quinn and John Schultz
Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk was owned by a charitable foundation, and since its founding in the 1920s had focused on producing insulin to treat diabetes. In 2017, however, it released Ozempic, a diabetes treatment with the revolutionary side effect of... View Details
Keywords: Cost vs Benefits; Decisions; Judgments; Values and Beliefs; Global Strategy; Health Care and Treatment; Patents; Growth and Development Strategy; Growth Management; Product Positioning; Supply and Industry; Supply Chain; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Mission and Purpose; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Opportunities; Social Issues; Equality and Inequality; Pharmaceutical Industry; Health Industry; Denmark; United States; Europe; China; India; Middle East; North Africa
- 2024
- Working Paper
The Effects of Medical Debt Relief: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments
By: Raymond Kluender, Neale Mahoney, Francis Wong and Wesley Yin
Two in five Americans have medical debt, nearly half of whom owe at least $2,500. Concerned by this burden, governments and private donors have undertaken large, high-profile efforts to relieve medical debt. We partnered with RIP Medical Debt to conduct two randomized... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
An Experimental Design for Anytime-Valid Causal Inference on Multi-Armed Bandits
By: Biyonka Liang and Iavor I. Bojinov
Typically, multi-armed bandit (MAB) experiments are analyzed at the end of the study and thus require the analyst to specify a fixed sample size in advance. However, in many online learning applications, it is advantageous to continuously produce inference on the... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Design-Based Inference for Multi-arm Bandits
By: Dae Woong Ham, Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Lindon and Martin Tingley
Multi-arm bandits are gaining popularity as they enable real-world sequential decision-making across application areas, including clinical trials, recommender systems, and online decision-making. Consequently, there is an increased desire to use the available... View Details
- March 2024
- Article
Medicare Price Negotiation and Pharmaceutical Innovation Following the Inflation Reduction Act
By: Matthew Vogel, Pragya Kakani, Amitabh Chandra and Rena M. Conti
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires Medicare to negotiate lower prices for some medicines with high Medicare spending. Using historical data from public and proprietary sources to apply the IRA's negotiation criteria retrospectively, we identify all drugs that... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
'De Gustibus' and Disputes about Reference Dependence
By: Thomas Graeber, Pol Campos-Mercade, Lorenz Goette, Alexandre Kellogg and Charles Sprenger
Existing tests of reference-dependent preferences assume universal loss aversion. This paper examines the implications of heterogeneity in gain-loss attitudes for such tests. In experiments on labor supply and exchange behavior we measure gain-loss attitudes and then... View Details
- January 2024
- Article
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Kevin Wu Han, Guillaume Basse and Iavor Bojinov
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit’s outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in... View Details
- 2023
- Working Paper
Money, Time, and Grant Design
By: Kyle Myers and Wei Yang Tham
The design of research grants has been hypothesized to be a useful tool for
influencing researchers and their science. We test this by conducting two thought
experiments in a nationally representative survey of academic researchers. First,
we offer participants a... View Details