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- Article
Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores
By: Liran Einav, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender and Paul Schrimpf
"Big data" and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which... View Details
Einav, Liran, Amy Finkelstein, Raymond Kluender, and Paul Schrimpf. "Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 8, no. 2 (April 2016): 195–224.
- June 2023
- Article
Regulatory Limits to Risk Management
By: Ishita Sen
Variable annuities, the largest liability of U.S. life insurers, are investment products containing long-dated minimum return guarantees. I show that guarantees with similar economic risks are treated differently by regulation and these differences impact insurers’... View Details
Keywords: Interest Rate Risk; Variable Annuities; Capital Regulation; Reinsurance; Derivatives; Risk Management; Interest Rates; Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms
Sen, Ishita. "Regulatory Limits to Risk Management." Review of Financial Studies 36, no. 6 (June 2023): 2175–2223.
- November 2018
- Article
Global Evidence on Economic Preferences
By: Armin Falk, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David Huffman and Uwe Sunde
This article studies the global variation in economic preferences. For this purpose, we present the Global Preference Survey (GPS), an experimentally validated survey data set of time preference, risk preference, positive and negative reciprocity, altruism, and trust... View Details
Keywords: Economic Preferences; Economics; Behavior; Surveys; Analytics and Data Science; Global Range
Falk, Armin, Anke Becker, Thomas Dohmen, Benjamin Enke, David Huffman, and Uwe Sunde. "Global Evidence on Economic Preferences." Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, no. 4 (November 2018): 1645–1692.
- November 2023
- Case
Gabon Special Economic Zone
By: John Macomber and Wale Lawal
Tropical rain forest covers about 80% of the West African nation of Gabon, part of the Congo Basin and the "lungs of the world." Gabon is one of the first nations to earn revenue from carbon sequestration...as long as the rain forest remains intact. There are... View Details
Keywords: Economic Development; Forestry; Wood; Carbon Credits; Supply Chain; Economic Growth; Developing Countries and Economies; Climate Change; Environmental Sustainability; Government Administration; Business and Government Relations; Strategy; Forest Products Industry; Africa; Gabon
Macomber, John, and Wale Lawal. "Gabon Special Economic Zone." Harvard Business School Case 224-012, November 2023.
- Article
Excusing Selfishness in Charitable Giving: The Role of Risk
By: Christine L. Exley
Decisions involving charitable giving often occur under the shadow of risk. A common finding is that potential donors give less when there is greater risk that their donation will have less impact. While this behavior could be fully rationalized by standard economic... View Details
Keywords: Charitable Giving; Prosocial Behavior; Altruism; Risk Preferences; Risk and Uncertainty; Philanthropy and Charitable Giving; Behavior
Exley, Christine L. "Excusing Selfishness in Charitable Giving: The Role of Risk." Review of Economic Studies 83, no. 2 (April 2016): 587–628.
- 2011
- Working Paper
From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management
By: Anette Mikes
For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Taleb, 2007; Power, 2009). This paper asks whether the... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting and Prediction; Financial Crisis; Risk Management; Measurement and Metrics; Organizational Culture; Situation or Environment; Banking Industry
Mikes, Anette. "From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-069, January 2011. (Revised March 2011.)
- Article
From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management
By: Anette Mikes
For two decades, risk management has been gaining ground in banking. In light of the recent financial crisis, several commentators concluded that the continuing expansion of risk measurement is dysfunctional (Power, 2009; Taleb, 2007). This paper asks whether the... View Details
Keywords: Risk Management; Banks and Banking; Financial Crisis; Expansion; Organizational Culture; Management Teams; Managerial Roles
Mikes, Anette. "From Counting Risk to Making Risk Count: Boundary-Work in Risk Management." Accounting, Organizations and Society 36, nos. 4-5 (May–July 2011): 226–245.
- 2001
- Working Paper
Bank Capital and Risk Management: Issues for Banks and Regulators
By: Kenneth A. Froot
Banks and financial firms are in the process of evolving away from primary warehousers of risk to diversified originators and distributors of financial services. These changes are important for the way that financial firms think about their needs for economic... View Details
Keywords: Bank Capital And Risk Management; Issues For Banks And Regulators; Risk Management; Governance Compliance; Capital; Banks and Banking; Banking Industry
Froot, Kenneth A. "Bank Capital and Risk Management: Issues for Banks and Regulators." IFCI Geneva Research Paper, No. 8, April 2001. (International Financial Risk Institute.)
- August 2020
- Article
Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks
By: John Y. Campbell, Carolin E. Pflueger and Luis M. Viceira
Our new model of consumption-based habit generates time-varying risk premia on bonds and stocks from loglinear, homoskedastic macroeconomic dynamics. Consumers' first-order condition for the real risk-free bond generates an exactly loglinear consumption Euler equation,... View Details
Keywords: Consumption-based Habit Formation; Consumption Euler Equation; Time-varying Risk Premia; Inflation Dynamics; Bond-stock Correlation; Risk and Uncertainty; Bonds; Macroeconomics
Campbell, John Y., Carolin E. Pflueger, and Luis M. Viceira. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks." Journal of Political Economy 128, no. 8 (August 2020): 3148–3185.
- Article
Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
By: Mark Seasholes, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine and Sonia Jimenez-Garces
This paper mathematically transforms unobservable rational expectation equilibrium model parameters (information precision and supply uncertainty) into a single variable that is correlated with expected returns and that can be estimated with recently observed data. Our... View Details
Keywords: Risk Premiums; Cross-sectional Asset Pricing; REE Models; Risk and Uncertainty; Asset Pricing; Investment Return
Seasholes, Mark, Radu Burlacu, Patrice Fontaine, and Sonia Jimenez-Garces. "Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 105, no. 3 (September 2012): 511–522.
- 2016
- Book
Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance in Emerging Markets
By: Lakshmi Iyer
Emerging markets play an increasingly important role in the global economy, accounting for 31% of global GDP and more than 50% of global foreign direct investment in 2012. However, doing business in emerging markets remains subject to a high degree of "policy risk,"... View Details
Keywords: Property Rights; Economic Policy; Political Economy; Emerging Markets; Economic Growth; Government and Politics; Business and Government Relations
Iyer, Lakshmi. Institutions, Institutional Change and Economic Performance in Emerging Markets. World Scientific Publishing, 2016.
- 13 Jul 2007
- Working Paper Summaries
Economic Catastrophe Bonds
- 2009
- Book
Financial Economics
By: Zvi Bodie, Robert C. Merton and David L. Cleeton
This book seeks to explain finance through its functions rather than its institutions, concentrating on the three pillars of finance: optimization over time, asset valuation, and risk management. View Details
Bodie, Zvi, Robert C. Merton, and David L. Cleeton. Financial Economics. 2nd ed. NJ: Prentice Hall, 2009. (Overview; Translated into Korean and Hungarian.)
- May 2020
- Article
Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences
By: Anke Becker, Benjamin Enke and Armin Falk
This paper shows that contemporary population-level heterogeneity in risk aversion, time preference, altruism, positive reciprocity, negative reciprocity, and trust partly traces back to the structure of the migration patterns of our very early ancestors. To document... View Details
Keywords: Migration Patterns; Behavioral Economics; Preferences; Microeconomics; Demography; Decision Making; Risk and Uncertainty; History; Global Range
Becker, Anke, Benjamin Enke, and Armin Falk. "Ancient Origins of the Global Variation in Economic Preferences." AEA Papers and Proceedings 110 (May 2020): 319–323.
- 2013
- Book
Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters
The period leading up to the Great Depression witnessed the rise of the economic forecasters, pioneers who sought to use the tools of science to predict the future, with the aim of profiting from their forecasts. This book chronicles the lives and careers of the men... View Details
Keywords: Forecasting And Prediction; Economic History; Economics; History; Risk and Uncertainty; United States
Friedman, Walter A. Fortune Tellers: The Story of America's First Economic Forecasters. Princeton University Press, 2013.
- Article
Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America since 1970
By: G. Jones and Rachael Comunale
This article contributes to the literature on political risk in business and economic history by examining both new perspectives (risk encountered by companies domestically, rather than risk for foreign investors) and new settings (emerging markets economies in Latin... View Details
Keywords: Political Risk; Emerging Market; Bribery; Business ＆ Government Relations; Turbulence; Violence; Risk and Uncertainty; Emerging Markets; Crime and Corruption; Business and Government Relations; Business History; India; Latin America
Jones, G., and Rachael Comunale. "Business, Governments and Political Risk in South Asia and Latin America since 1970." Australian Economic History Review 58, no. 3 (November 2018): 233–264.
- September 2012
- Article
The Relationship Between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures
By: Anke Becker, Thomas Deckers, Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk and Fabian Kosse
Although both economists and psychologists seek to identify determinants of heterogeneity in behavior, they use different concepts to capture them. In this review, we first analyze the extent to which economic preferences and psychological concepts of personality, such... View Details
Keywords: Risk Preference; Time Preference; Social Preferences; Locus Of Control; Big Five; Economics; Behavior; Personal Characteristics
Becker, Anke, Thomas Deckers, Thomas Dohmen, Armin Falk, and Fabian Kosse. "The Relationship Between Economic Preferences and Psychological Personality Measures." Annual Review of Economics 4 (September 2012): 453–478.
- 1977
- Working Paper
Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance
By: Jerry R. Green
A two-period lifetime overlapping generations growth model is used to evaluate the possibility that social insurance can effectively offset economic risks associated with uncertainty about the rate of population growth. Crude measures of the seriousness of this type of... View Details
Keywords: Social Insurance; Econometric Models; Public Sector; Government Administration; Policy; Human Needs; Social Issues; Risk and Uncertainty
Green, Jerry R. "Mitigating Demographic Risk Through Social Insurance." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 215, November 1977.
- 2021
- Chapter
Multinationals' Need for State Protection: The Creation of the Swiss Investment Risk Guarantee in the 1960s
By: Sabine Pitteloud
This chapter focuses on the role of Industrie-Holding, the Federation of Swiss Industrial Multinational Companies, in the introduction of an investment risk guarantee during the 1960s. The chapter therefore contributes to a) the growing body of literature on how... View Details
Keywords: Investments; Multinational Companies; Political Risk; Business ＆ Government Relations; Investment; Multinational Firms and Management; Risk and Uncertainty; Business and Government Relations; Switzerland
Pitteloud, Sabine. "Multinationals' Need for State Protection: The Creation of the Swiss Investment Risk Guarantee in the 1960s." In Security and Insecurity in Business History: Case Studies in the Perception and Negotiation of Threats, edited by Mark Jakob, Nina Kleinöder, and Christian Kleinschmidt, 111–134. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft, 2021.
- December 2009
- Article
Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns
By: Christopher J. Malloy, Tobias J. Moskowitz and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen
We provide new evidence on the success of long-run risks in asset pricing by focusing on the risks borne by stockholders. Exploiting micro-level household consumption data, we show that long-run stockholder consumption risk better captures cross-sectional variation in... View Details
Malloy, Christopher J., Tobias J. Moskowitz, and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen. "Long-Run Stockholder Consumption Risk and Asset Returns." Journal of Finance 64, no. 6 (December 2009): 2427–2480. (Finalist for the 2010 Smith Breeden Prize for the best paper in the Journal of Finance.)