Publications

SSRN

Research Summary

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand... View Details

fall 2007
Article

Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts

By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher

Keywords: Risk and Uncertainty; Judgments; Forecasting and Prediction

17 Mar 2021
Working Paper Summaries

Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment

Keywords: by Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani

Article

Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty

By: A. Raman, M. Fisher, J. Hammond and W. Obermeyer

Keywords: Supply Chain; Cost; Risk and Uncertainty

1998
Chapter

Configuring a Supply Chain to Reduce the Cost of Demand Uncertainty

By: J. H. Hammond, Marshall L. Fisher, Walter Obermeyer and A. Raman

Keywords: Supply Chain Management; Cost Management; Demand and Consumers; Risk Management; Risk and Uncertainty

January 2005
Article

Agency Costs in a Supply Chain with Demand Uncertainty and Price Competition

By: V.G. Narayanan, Ananth Raman and J. Singh

Keywords: Cost; Supply Chain; Risk and Uncertainty; Price; Competition

January 1996
Article

Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty through Accurate Response to Early Sales

By: A. Raman and M. Fisher

Keywords: Cost; Risk and Uncertainty; Sales

Research Summary

Optimal Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Inventory control problems in supply chains. In this stream of theoretical research, Professor Goh has investigated how inventory should be optimally managed in supply chains. Specifically, he has studied how supply chains can make decisions to operate... View Details

March 2005
Article

Short- and Long-term Demand Curves for Stocks: Theory and Evidence on the Dynamics of Arbitrage

By: Robin Greenwood

I develop a framework to analyze demand curves for multiple risky securities at extended horizons in a setting with limits-to-arbitrage. Following an unexpected change in uninformed investor demand for several assets, I predict returns of each security to be... View Details

Keywords: Limits To Arbitrage; Event Studies; Demand Curves; Portfolio Choice; Framework; Demand and Consumers; Change; Risk and Uncertainty; Debt Securities; Forecasting and Prediction; Stocks; Assets; Investment Portfolio; System Shocks; Price; Japan

Teaching Interest

Decision Making Under Uncertainty

By: David E. Bell

Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details

22 Feb 2008
Working Paper Summaries

Consumer Demand for Prize-Linked Savings: A Preliminary Analysis

Keywords: by Peter Tufano, Nick Maynard & Jan-Emmanuel De Neve; Financial Services

September 2002
Case

Align Technology, Inc.: Matching Manufacturing Capacity to Sales Demand

By: H. Kent Bowen and Jonathan P Groberg

Align Technology is a four-year-old medical products company that has invented a new product requiring new manufacturing processes. Demand for the new product has grown more slowly than initial forecasts predicted, and the cost structure is preventing the company from... View Details

Keywords: Health Care and Treatment; Collaborative Innovation and Invention; Problems and Challenges; Product; Forecasting and Prediction; Marketing Strategy; Sales; Demand and Consumers; Production; Health Industry

Educators

Purchase

December 2019
Article

Invest in Information or Wing It? A Model of Dynamic Pricing with Seller Learning

By: Guofang Huang, Hong Luo and Jing Xia

Pricing idiosyncratic products is often challenging because the seller, ex ante, lacks information about the demand for individual items. This paper develops a model of dynamic pricing for idiosyncratic products that features the optimal stopping structure and a seller... View Details

Keywords: Dynamic Pricing; Idiosyncratic Products; Item-specific Demand; Demand Uncertainty; Active Seller Learning; The Value Of Information; Price; Information; Value; Learning

05 Jul 2006
Working Paper Summaries

A Survey-Based Procedure for Measuring Uncertainty or Heterogeneous Preferences in Markets

Keywords: by Pai-Ling Yin; Technology; Web Services

September 2023
Article

Consuming Contests: The Effect of Outcome Uncertainty on Spectator Attendance in the Australian Football League

By: Patrick Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani

Contests that non-contestants consume for entertainment are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. We exploit injury-induced changes to teams' line-ups in a professional sports setting to examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have... View Details

Keywords: Sports; Entertainment; Consumer Behavior

09 Dec 2015
Research Event

How Do You Predict Demand and Set Prices For Products Never Sold Before?

in a digitally-transformed economy. “All of these decisions would be easy to make if I knew what consumer demand will be. The problem is that I have a lot of uncertainty in demand” All retailers face tricky... View Details

Keywords: by Carmen Nobel; Retail; Apparel & Accessories

November 1983
Article

On the Problems of Applying Ramsey Pricing to the Railroad Industry with Uncertain Demand Elasticities

By: William B. Tye and Dutch Leonard

Keywords: Problems and Challenges; Price; Risk and Uncertainty; Rail Industry

July 2024 (Revised September 2024)
Case

Shell’s Balancing Act: Resource Allocation and the Green Transition (Abridged)

By: David Collis and Haisley Wert

In mid-2023, amid pressure from climate change activists, shareholder activists, and confronting enormous uncertainty about the future demand for and price of fossil fuels, new Shell CEO Wael Sawan (Harvard MBA 2003) announced a change in strategy for the U.K. oil... View Details

Keywords: Corporate Strategy; Oil ＆ Gas; Renewables; Forecasting Demand; Activist Investing; Strategy; Energy; Climate Change; Resource Allocation; Energy Industry

Educators

November 2019 (Revised April 2021)
Technical Note

Rechargeable Batteries, 2017: Gigafactory Wars in the Offing?

By: John R. Wells and Benjamin Weinstock

In 2017, the global market for rechargeable lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries was 126 gigawatt-hours (GWh) valued at $37 billion, growing by $10 billion in two years. Once confined largely to consumer electronics and appliances, the rapid increase in demand was spurred by... View Details